
A friend asked me what I thought of the recent numbers that have come out, and specifically, this video:
CLICK HERE
One of the analysts mentions: “it is payback time for the tax credit and that demand has been pulled forward and the demand now is not there.” I simply don’t agree with that statement. I do believe the following about our current housing market:
1) Consumer confidence is the #1 issue in today’s housing market(analyst #2 mentions this). Our national unemployment numbers are hovering at 10% and the underemployed percentage drives that up even further. Without an increase in consumer confidence, the housing market will remain in flux.
2) Mortage rates REMAIN at historic lows. These rates cannot continue to remain this low. The fed is artificially maintaining rates with short-term interest rates at near 0%, resulting in 30-year mortgages in the sub-5% range. Inflation is inevitable.
3) Mortgage lending has tightened up and rightly so. Buyers are no longer able to simply borrow on the equity of their current home to ‘buy up’. They must first sell their homes and this has created pent-up demand, in my opinion. People still WANT to move up, they just can’t.
4) Pricing will continue to be flat, at best in 2010. Those looking to sell are not able to get the same price they were just a few years ago; however, this also means those moving up are seeing lower prices than then would have seen three years ago, also.
Our president will speak at his state of the union address this week and his message will be important. Will there be a shift in focus to job generation, or continued focus on policy? With the pressure on the President in recent gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, coupled with a switch in party in the Massachusetts Senate election, I believe the President needs to listen to the people’s voice and focus more on the economy. We shall see.
So, what do you all think is going to happen in the 2010 housing market? Please leave your comments below.
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